31 Ağustos 2016

Bugün petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün kalıcı olma ihtimali ile ilgili ilginç analizler vardı. Fakat böyle bir gelecek görünümü OPEC ülkelerini daha çok paniğe sevk edebilir. Venezüella ile ilgili ABD think tankları uyarıcı raporlar yayınlıyor. İşin ilginç yanı Venezüella hafif petrol alıp, kendi petrolü ile karıştırıp satıyor. Fiyatların düşük gideceği ne kadar kalıcı bir ruh haline dönüşürse, petrol üreticisi ülkelerde sorunların ortaya çıkma ihtimali artar. Eğer Çin talebinin ne kadarı stokları doldurmak için olduğu netleşemezse, Çin’de talep artışı da net olarak söylenemez.

Bilgiler

Bugünden itibaren Cuma’ya kadar Gazprom ikinci defa Kuzey Avrupa için doğal gaz satış ihalesi yapacak. 31 Ekim- 31 Mart arası için 3 milyar m3’lük bir hacim için ihaleye çıkacak Gazprom, Greifswald, Gaspool, Olbernhau ve Avusturya’da Baumgarten ve Arnoldstein hubları teslim olarak sunacak. Şu sıralar petrol endeksli fiyat piyasa fiyatlarından daha düşük.

1.2 trilyon $’lık varlık yöneten 3 ana sigorta şirketi, önümüzdeki G20 zirvesi öncesi G20 ülkelerinden fosil yakıt sübvansiyonlarını kaldırmalarını istedilerBir rapora göre eğer 2010’da fosil yakıt sübvansiyonları olmasa emisyonlar %46 daha düşük olurmuş.

JPMorgan, Çin 2016 ortasına kadar 400 milyon varil depolama yaptığını, yılın ilk yarısında günde ortalama 1.2 mv/g ile depoları doldurduğunu iddia etti. EnergyAspects ise 400bin v/g ile depolarını doldurduğunu iddia ediyor. Energy Aspects 300bin v/g ile yılın ikinci yarısında stok için alımların devam edeceğini iddia etmiş. Çin’in 2020’ye kadar 100 günlük acil stok hedefi var.

2015’te sadece 2.7 milyar varillik yeni petrol rezervi bulundu. Bu 1947’den beri en düşük rakam.

National Grid UK Genel Müdürü Bayan Nicola Shaw, “akıllı enerji” devriminin İngiltere’de elektrik kesintilerini engellemeye yardımcı olacağını söylemiş. Örnekler: Marriott Otelleri, pik talepte klima sistemini geçici kapatan kontratı var ve tüketici bunu fark edemiyor. Sharp, evdeki pillerin şebekeye geri elektrik vermesine çalışıyor. Heathrow havalimanı yakınındaki asfalt(bitümen) depolarında da benzer ısıtma-durma süreçleri uygulanıyor.

Türkmenistan, doğal gazda Avrupa pazarına girme isteğini Almanya da yineledi.30 Ağustos’taki konferansta Socar Başkan yardımcısı Khoshbakht Yusifzade “Bizim Hazar denizinin ortasına kadar uzanan boru hatlarımız var, bu da Türkmenistandan çok az bir uzaklıkta” dedi. Serdar-Kepez sorunu da var, ama asıl soru yatırımı kim karşılayacak?

Kıbrıs doğalgazının Mısır’a boru hattı ile iletilebilmesine dair bir anlaşma imzalandı.

İstatistik

Dünyadaki suyun sadece %0.5’i insan tüketimi için uygun

2030’da McKinsey&Co’ya göre su talebi arzını %40 geçecek

Tarım, küresel su tüketiminin %90’ının sebebi

Dünyada 650 milyon insanın güvenli su kaynaklarına erişimi yok

IMF’ye göre her sene fosil yakıt sübvansiyonlarına 5.3 trilyon $ harcanıyor.

G20 ülkeleri her sene bu sübvansiyonlara 444 milyar $harcıyor. Devlet KİT’lerinin harcaması 286 milyar $, kamu finansmanı 88 milyar $ ve ulusal sübvansiyonlar 70 milyar $.

Geçtiğimiz sene Türkmenistan İran’a 7.2 milyar m3, Çin’e de 27.7 milyar m3 gaz sattı.

Türkmenistan-Afganistan-Pakistan-Hindistan doğalgaz boru hattı 1680 km, 33 milyar m3/yıl ve 10 milyar $’a mal olması bekleniyor.

Dergi Özeti

IAEE Enerji Forum mutlaka okunması gereken yayınlardan, Neden? Dünyada gelişen yeni fikir ve analizlerden beslenmek için : http://www.iaee.org/documents/2016EnergyForumSI.pdf

 

IAEE Enerji Forumun bu özeti Bergen Konferansının özeti, IAEE başkanı Gürkan Kumbaroğlu’nun takdimi ile başlıyor.

Changing Oil Market Fundamentals and Implications for OPEC Production Strategy. Daniel Scheitrum, Lew Fulton, Amy Myers-Jaffe

Makaledeki ilginç noktalar, mevcut değişimleri göz önüne aldığımızda petrol talep öngörülerinin ne kadar değiştiği:

  • Otomobil edinme oranlarını OECD dışı ülkelerde %25 azaltınca, 2050 petrol talebi %13 düşüyor
  • Tüm dünyada GDP büyüme oranları %20 düşse, 2050 petrol talebi %12 düşüyor (p15)
  • Kombine etkide (daha az araba, daha yavaş büyüme, %20 daha az araç-yol(VMT), %20 yol enerji verimliliği), 2050 talebinde %34 azalma
  • Araç paylaşım, algoritmik araç havuzu, vs incelemesi için
    • VMT %30 artınca, 2050 petrol talebi %12 artıyor
    • VMT %50 düşünce,2050 petrol talebi %20 düşüyor
  • Eğer petrol talebinde yapısal bir düşüş var ise:
    • OPEC’in yakın dönemde petrol üretimini arttırması en doğru strateji

Nearshore Versus Offshore: Comparative Cost and Competitive Advantages .  Henrik Klinge Jacobsen, Pablo Hevia Koch, Christoph Wolter

Danimarkadaki deniz rüzgar türbinlerinin değerlerinden makalenin ana mesajı şu, bir rüzgar türbininin kıyıya uzaklığından çok bulunduğu deniz derinliği maliyetlerde daha önemli. Danimarka da deniz sığ olduğundan diğer ülkelere örnek olmayabilir. Makale’de kıyıya uzaklık ve deniz derinliği maliyet tablosu ilginç. 12 km’ye kadar “nearshore” deniyor.

Cross-Border Effects of Capacity Remuneration Schemes in Interconnected Markets: Who is Free-Riding? Xavier Lambin andThomas-Olivier Léautier

Eğer bir piyasa kapasite mekanizması kurar, diğeri kurmaz ise ve bu iki piyasa iletim hattı ile bağlı ise, bu durum iki piyasadaki arz güvenliği ve yatırımları nasıl etkiler. Yazarların temel tezi, kapasite ödemelerinin sınır aşan etkilerinin olacağı, bu yüzden (AB’ye mesaj) farklı kapasite ödeme sistemlerinin bazılarını daha dezavantajlı durumda bırakacağı.

Aslında kısa vadede kapasite ödemesi yapmayıp, komşunun sisteminden iletim hatları vasıtasıyla faydalanan, uzun vadede daha dezavantajlı oluyor, çünkü yatırım çekme gücü de düşüyor. Sonuçları: Avrupada kapasite ödemeleri acilen harmonize olmalı

Problems Created by Financial Trading in U.S. Wholesale Electricity Markets.  John E. Parsons, Cathleen Colbert, Jeremy Larrieu, Taylor Martin and Erin Mastrangelo

Finansal traderlar, elektrik fiyatları oluşumunu arz-talep temellerinden uzaklaştırıyorlar mı, yoksa sağlıklı fiyat oluşumuna yardımcı mı oluyorlar. ABD piyasasında FERC bu konuda bir dolu duruma baktı. ABD piyasasına özgü sanal teklif “virtual bidding”’in yazarlar piyasa maliyetlerini arttırdığını fakat performansının iyileştirmediğini iddia ediyorlar.

Sanal teklif, gün öncesi ile gerçek zamanda oluşan fiyatlar arasındaki farkın finansal pozisyon alanlar tarafından değerlendirilmesini sağlayan bir araç. Gerçek zamanda tüm teklifler temizlenmiş oluyor. Talep teklifleri gerçek zaman eksi gün öncesi fiyat ,arz teklifleri de tam tersini kazanıyorlar. Talep teklifleri, gerçekleşme fiyatının üzerinde olursa gerçekleşiyor, arz teklifleri de oluşan fiyatın altındaysa.

Makale de detaylı var, ama saatlik sanal tekliflerde hızlı yük alma imkanı kısıtlı ünitelerden dolayı doğru şekilde oluşmayabiliyor. Dolayısıyla hem maliyetleri arttırıyor hem de performansı arttırmıyor.

Tarih

4 Nisan 1951 – Milliyet Sayfa 3

 

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