26 Ağustos 2016

Hafta sonu bunu okumaya çalışacağım: http://www.iaee.org/documents/2016EnergyForumSI.pdf

Bilgiler

Seneye petrol fiyat ortalaması 61$,  2017 ikinci çeyrek sonu 70$ olur. MerrillLynch

LNG’de “ahmak sezonu” diye bir şey varmış ve Ağustos’un son haftasında zirve yaparmış. Çünkü herkes tatilde olduğundan kimse major bir açıklama yapmıyor, meydan böyle ahmak(“silly”) haberlere kalıyor: “LNG gemisi kedi kurtardı”. (haber gerçek ve Argus’tan)

Birçok kimse OPEC Genel sekreterinin cümlesini çözemedi : “Nothing is not possible”. Sorulan soru “üretimi durduracakmısınız”. Bu cevap benim bestof’umda. Suleyman Demirel in English

Hinkley Point C nükleer santrali yerine ne yapılabilir? Alternatifler:  4 büyük offshore rüzgar çiftliği, ek 3 tane elektrik interkonnektör hattı (çevre ülkelerle), daha verimli kullanarak 2/5’i kadar enerji elimine edilebilir. 3.2 GW’lık talep yönetimi.

Bulgaristan’ın Varna yakınında Balkan hub’u kurma fikri (AB ile birlikte) 17 uluslar arası enerji şirketinin ilgisini çekmiş. 5-6 Eylül’de Varna’da Büyük enerji şirketleri, Gazprom, OMV, BP, RWE, Socar bir araya gelecek. Borisov Bulgaristan’ın hub olmak için 2.2 milyar euro’ya ihtiyacı olduğunu iddia etmiş.

Hindistan’da taşımacılık maliyetleri rüzgar projelerindeki toplam maliyetin %8’i civarında. Suzlon açıklamalarında Hindistan’da yolların uygun olmadığı için projelerde sorun yaşadığını söylemiş. “Lojistik kabus”. Renew Güç Ortaklığı, 2012’den beri rüzgar projeleri için 1000km yol yapmak zorunda kalmış.

Ukrayna borsasında 2017’de forward doğalgaz kontratları işleme başlayacak.

CAISO(California’nın TEİAŞ’ı), “üretici olmayan kaynaklar” (non generator resources – depolama sistemleri gibi)’ın gün öncesinde kendi şarj durumlarını ve enerji limitlerini teklif edebilmelerini kabul etti. ISO şarj durumunu uzaktan okuyor, enerji de bunun fonksiyonu

ABD’deki hortumun şu aşamada Lousiana Offshore Petrol terminalini etkilemesi beklenmiyor. Gene de ihtimal var düşük.

Temmuzda küresel olarak 11 milyar $ petrol ve gaz işlemi(satın alma) ilan edildi. Geçtiğimiz ay Statoil, Brezilya’nın offshore alanını Petrobras’tan 2.5 milyar $’a satın almaya anlaştı. Exxon doğal gaz arama şirketi InterOil Corp’u 3.6 milyar $’a geçen ay almıştı.

İstatistik

Çin’in 2014’teki 7 mv/g olan petrol ithalatı IEA tahminlerine göre 2021’de 9.5 mv/g olabilir.

Çin’de petrol talebi 2014’teki 10.5 mv/g, 2030 14.7 mv/g

Çin petrol ithalatının ¾’ü Malakka Boğazından, %10-12’si de Pasifikten geliyor. Toplamda %85 deniz yolu.

Hindistan rüzgar kurulu gücü 27 GW, toplam yeşil enerji kurulu gücü de 45 GW

2015 : Çin’e satışlar:

  • Suudi Arabistan 50.55milyon ton = 1.17 mv/g
  • Rusya : 42.43 milyon ton =1 mv/g

Rusların (doğuya) Asya’ya ihracatı 2035 gibi 110mv/g(=2.2mv/g).

 

Rapor Özeti

“Ejderle Satranç – Çin ve Rusya arasındaki Enerji İlişkileri” –Bölüm 2

Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with Dragon

James Henderson, Tatiana Mitrova

Alttaki kısım İngilizce raporun özet/anlaşıldığı kadarının Türkçe yazımıdır.

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Energy-Relations-between-Russia-and-China-Playing-Chess-with-the-Dragon-WPM-67.pdf

Doğu Sibirya’da petrol üretimi 1990’larda Kuzey İrkutsk, Güney Yakutiya ve Krasnoyar alanındaki Evenk bölgesinde başlamış. 2009’da toplam üretim 11 milyon ton toplam olmuş. Yumurta-tavuk problemi, altyapı yok, petrol sahası gelişmesi yapılamıyor. Transneft de gönülsüz oluyor. Fakat değişim Vankor alanından kuzeye Arktik okyanusuna değil doğuya yönlendirilince değişiyor. ESPO yapılıyor. ESPO bitince üretim 2010’da 2.5 kat artıyor. Üretim 2009’daki 100bin v/g’den 900bin v/g’e çıkıyor.

Bu altyapı sonucu artan üretim ve artan arama faaliyetleri doğu sibiryada çok daha büyük rezervler bulunabilir.

Doğu Sibiryadaki önemli sahalardan, Vankorskoye 3.2 milyar varil rezerv. (recoverable). Bölgeyi kontrol eden büyükler Rosneft, Gazpromneft, Surgutneftegas ve bağımsızlar da Irkutsk Oil. Sakhalin lisansları da 2 milyar varillik rezervlere sahip, Sakhalin 1 Rosneft/Exxon, Sakhalin 2 Gazprom Shell tarafından yürütülüyor.

2009 yılındaki Rus strateji belgesine göre her halükarda Uzak Doğu ve Doğu Sibirya üretimleri 2030’da düşük senaryoda bile 2 mv/g’ü aşıyor. Yazarlar da 2025 gibi kendi analizlerinde 2.35 mv/g buluyorlar.

Arzdan sonra Çin’e bakarak talep tarafı resmini de tamamlıyorlar.

Rus ve Çin ilişkilerinin gelişmesindeki temel neden Çin’in de petrol de artan ithalat bağımlılığı. Çin’in 2014’teki 7 mv/g olan ithalatı IEA tahminlerine göre 2021’de 9.5 mv/g olabilir. 2015’de ise bu ithalatın %70’i orta doğu ve Afrika. Rusyadan ithalat önemli çünkü denizden değil karadan gelecek.

Çin’lilere ilk petrol sağlama müzakeresi yapanlardan biri Yukos. Anlaşma ile Sinopec’e 500bin ton/yıl ham petrol ve 1 milyon ton/yıl petrol ürünleri sağlamayı planlıyor. Yukos’un boru hattı fikri 2002’de CNPC’den inşaat maliyetlerinin %50sinin finansmanı desteğini de alması ile sonuçlanmıştı.

Mayıs 2003^de Yukos ve CNPC 3 yıllık – 6milyon ton ve 1.1 milyar $lık petrol satış anlaşması imzaladı. Boru hattı içinde ilk 5 yıl 400binv/g 2010 sonrası için de 600bin v/g rakamlarında anlaştılar

Fakat anlaşma Rusya’daki güç grupları arasındaki ilk büyük çatışmayı da ateşledi. Yukos’un hattı 2247 km iken, Rus devletinin desteklediği Transneft projesi ise 3764 km. Fakat Çevre Bakanlığı iki projeyi de reddediyor. (Baykal gölüne risk diye)

Yukos meselesi sonrası Rus-Çin ilişkileri major bir dönüş yaşadı. 2004’te Rosneft Yukos’un Yuganskneftgaz’ı alması ile hız kazandı. Bu işlem esnasında ilk defa Çin finansman kaynakları Çin’e enerji sağlanması için  kullanıldı. Rosneft-CNPC ile 5 yıllık 48.8 milyon ton’luk bir anlaşma imzaladı.

31 Aralık 2004’te de ESPO boruhattı kararı imzalandı.

2006’da Çin Rosneft’ten pay almak istedi. Kremlin %0.62sine denk gelen 500 milyon $lık hisse hariç satışı reddetti. (Tüm halka arzın 6’da 1i). Mesaj: ticari anlaşmalar isteniyor, ama Rus şirketlerinde büyük yatırımlar istenmiyor. Fakat bu dönemde petrol fiyatları yükseliş trendindeydi.

2008/2009 krizindeki petrol fiyat düşüşü Rusyayı kötü etkiledi ve acil olarak Çin desteği gerekti. Ekim 2008’de Rosneft ve Transneft’in borç sorunu için mutabakat zaptı imzalandı

İlk anlaşma 2009’da Rosneft ve CNPC arasında 2030’a kadar yılda 15 milyon ton/yıl petrol karşılığı uzun dönemli 15 milyar $ Rosneft, 10 milyar $ Transneft içindi. Bu para ile ESPO inşaatı için (Transneft’e olan). Burada Igor Sechin Çin ile anlaşmaları kotaran ana kişi olarak öne çıktı.

Eylül 2010’da Skorovodino-Daqing hattının ana kısmı bitti ve ilk ürünler Ocak 2011’den itibaren teslime başlandı.

2011de ilk ticari sorun, taşıma bedellerinde yaşandı. Çinliler tren yerine boru hattı ile aldıkları için 13$/v daha az ödeme yaptılar. Müzakereler sonucunda Ruslar “ülke indirimi”, 1.5$/v ile sonuçtan memnundular. Bu kontrat süresi boyunca Rosneft’e 3 milyar $’a mal olacak.

2013 yılında Rosneft TNK-BP’deki 55 milyar dolarlık devir bedelini ödemek için tekrar Çinlilere başvurdu. CNPC ve Sinopec ile anlaşmasını uzatarak 65-70 milyar $ CNPC’den 10 milyar $Sinopec’ten ön ödeme söz aldı. (anlaşma bedelinin %25-30’una denk geliyor)

ESPO Boru hattı

Hat 2006’da başladı, ilk aşama 600bin v/g, ardından bir 300bv/g daha. Hat Rus-Çin sınırı ve Mokhne-Daqing girişine kadar(ESPO-1); Skovordino’dan Pasifik’e Kozmino  Körfezi(ESPO-2) olarak iki kısım. Üçüncü kısım 2020’de bitecek

Espo’nun Kozmino körfezine gelen limanından Çinli alıcılara satılan miktar 150bv/g ve önümüzdeki yıllarda 300-450 mv/g’lere çıkabilir. Bu satışlarda Çinli butik-çaydanlık-teapot rafineriler aktif yer alıyor.

2014’te ek depolama tankları ve pompa istasyonları ile 1.2mv/g’e geldi.

Rus tarafı her türlü çabayı gösterse de Çin tarafının yavaştan alması ilginç olarak nitelendiriliyor.

ESPO’ya yoğun talep, Rusya’nın ESPO blend ham petrolü benchmark ilan etmesini getirdi. ESPO 34-35 APi ağırlığı ve Kükürt 0.5-0.6%. Dolayısıyla Dubai blende göre daha değerli.

Rusya’daki Çinli petrol anlaşmaları zaman dilimi (Oxford Energy):

 

Tarih

5 Haziran 1978 – Sayfa 2, Behçet Yücel eski TEK Genel Müdürü, Enerji Ekonomisi kitabı yazarı

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  256. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who was doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me dinner because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to discuss this topic here on your site.

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  325. After I initially commented I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I get 4 emails with the exact same comment. Is there a means you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!

  326. Hello there, I do believe your site might be having internet browser compatibility issues. When I look at your website in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Other than that, great site!

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  341. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on this. And he actually ordered me lunch simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this topic here on your blog.

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