19 Ağustos 2016

Dolardaki zayıflık petrol rallisini destekliyor. Fakat trendi değiştirecek bir davranış görmedik. Eğer ABD körfez bölgesinde hortum-fırtına olursa yukarı yönlü hareket imkanı var. Bugün ilgi çeken bir konu ise ASEAN-5’lisinin emtia fiyatlarını etkilemesi idi. Aynı şekilde Avustralya ve İngiltere’nin Çin yatırımlarına soğukluğu vs. Petrol fiyatı takip ederken rasyoneliteyle inancı karıştırmamak lazım. Yani fiyatlar 2017de dengelenir yanlış bir cümle, fiyatlar şimdi de dengelenmiş durumda. Dengenin $60 üzerinde oluşmasına inanmak ise ayrı bir konu

Bilgiler

Bugün petrolle ilgili okunması gereken yazı: “İnsanlar neden piyasaların ne zaman dengeye geleceğini konuşuyor”. Dieter Helm çok ilginç iki cümle kullanmış. Başlarken “Petrol fiyatları rasyonel insanları ‘inananlara’ çevirme alışkanlığı var”, son cümlesi de “Fiyatlar iner çıkar, asıl önemli olan trenddir”.

Orta Asya’nın petrol ve gazı doğuya akıyor. Yazıda klasik IR argümanları, önemli noktası Çin’in orta asya ile kurduğu bağlar önümüzdeki yıllarda Hindistan’la da artabilir. Orta Asya iyiden yönünü doğuya döner diyor.

Çinlilerin İngiltere’de Hinkley Point C nükleer projesinde beklediği onayın ertelenmesi ilginç oldu. Anglo-Saxon taraftan(Avusturya, İngiltere, daha önce ABD) Çinlilerin yapacağı yatırımlara “güvenlik riski” ile yavaşlatma/durdurma  uygulaması da göz önüne alınmalı. Yazının sonucu para kadar “güven” lazım.

Çin yavaşlasa da ASEAN-5 (Endonezya, Tayland, Malezya, Filipinler ve Vietnam) sayesinde emtialar değer kazanıyor. BHP Billiton CEO’su bu bölgelerdeki emtia yoğun altyapı projelerinin (inşaat, yol, hat, boru) emtia talebini arttıracağı ve destekleyeceğini söylüyor. Yeni Çin olmasa da, bu ülkeler yeni büyüme hikayesi.

Uber, özel tasarım Volvo XC90lar ile Pittsburg’da otonomhizmetlere başlıyor, ama koltukta yine de insan oturacak. Uber 2021’e otonom araçlı servislere göz dikmiş ama kendi arabasını yapmayacak. Haberden anladığımız kadarı ile yeni sistemi ile Federal otoritelere başvurmadan önce data ve mil yolculuk tecrübesi edinmek istiyor. Uber CEOsu Travis Kalanick.

Siemens bültenindeki bir yazı elektrik sistemi için güzel bazı ilginç kavramlara sahip. “Bölgesel enerji hücreleri kavramını tartışıyoruz…. Nasıl vücuttaki hücreler beyne bağlı ise,geleceğin elektrik sistemi de ağları organize eden ve yerel enerji piyasaları oluşturan birbirine bağlı iletişim sistemleri tabanlı olacak”.

İngiltere’de OFGEM ulusal şebeke operatörü National Grid’in bütçesinde kesinti yaptı. Sebebi “daha az üretim santrali yüksek voltaj şebekesine(YG) bağlanıyor”.Daha önce 33 GW yeni kapasite YG’ye bağlanması beklenirken, 14 GW’ye düşürmüş. 2012’de dağıtık üretimin 2013-2021 döneminde 0.5 GW olacağını öngörürken, şu anda 11 GW bağlanmış ve 13 GW’da yolda

İngiltere’nin planladığı 6 nükleer santralden hiç biri İngiliz bir firmanın değil. (Fransızi Çin, ABD, Japonya) Hiç İngiliz firmanın olmaması politik tartışma konusu. Sadece nükleer santral değil, İngilteredeki çoğu büyük altyapı yatırımı yabancılar tarafından yapılıyor.

Meksika körfezindeki bir iki hortum WTI fiyatlarını 50$’ye getirebilirmiş.

İstatistik

Çin:

  • Kazakistan’da petrol üretiminin %20sini kontrol ediyor, 1700 km sınırı var, 2300 kmlik dünyanın en uzun boru hatlarından biri ile Hazar denizini Sincan’a bağlıyor
  • Türkmenistan-Çin arasında Orta Asya-Çin gaz boru hattı ile satış yapıyor. Hatta Özbekistan’da gaz sağlıyor.
  • Kırgızistan’da iki rafinerinin finansmanını da Çin yapıyor.
  • 2020’de Çin bölgenin petrol ve doğal gazının %50sini kendine ithal edecek (IEA)

ASEAN-5’te çelik talebi büyümesi %6 olacak

Çin dünya bakırının %50sini, denizaşırı kömürünün %21ini, ve demir cevheri ithalarının %65’ini tüketiyor.

Suudi Arabistan, Haziran petrol ve ürünleri ithalatı 8.83 milyon varil/gün. Bunun 7.46 mv/g’ü ham, 1.37 mv/g’ü de işlenmiş ürün. Jodidb.org

Aralık 2017 teslim Brent 55$.

 

Kitap Özeti

  What Went Wrong at Enron?

Enron’da ne yanlış gitti? “ABD tarihinin en büyük iflasını anlamak için herkesin rehberi”

 

Peter C. Fusaro ve Ross M. Miller

 

2002

 

Enron niye battı? Hemen kategorik cevapları sıralayalım, kapitalistti, aç gözlüydü, hırsızdı, açtı…

Peki Enron’un batışını getiren teknik olaylar dizisi neydi? Kitap bu konuda basitçe anlaşılabilen, okuması kolay bilgileri bir araya getirmiş.

Kitap Star Wars’ın popüler olduğu yıllarda, Star Wars kahramanlarının kartlarının çocuklar arasında nasıl değiş tokuş yapıldığı ile başlıyor. İki sebepten: bu ticaret mantığı daha sonra Enron’u anlatırken de kullanılyor;iki Enron’un bazı şirket isimleri de Star Wars’tan esinlenmiş.

Enron aslında Houston Doğal gaz şirketi olarak başladığı hayatında, doğal gaz sektörünün deregüle edilmesi ile piyasalar oluşturma konusunda fırsatlar görüyor. Deregülasyon fiyatlardaki belirsizliği arttırdığı için gelişmiş risk yönetim araçlarına ihtiyaç oluyor, bu araçları da Enron sağlıyor. Aslında yaptığı tüm kontratların al yada sat tek tarafı Enron oluyor.

Enron öncelikle ABD SPKsı tarafından gözetim altında olmayan swaplara eğiliyor, daha sonra ise kendi kontratlarını yayınlıyor. Sonra interneti keşfederek EnronOnline’ı kuruyor(youtube videoları var). Anladığım kadarı ile işe ilk girdikleri boru hattı ile gaz taşımacılığı işinde büyüyemeyeceklerini görerek ticaret tarafına ağırlık veriyorlar. Büyük firmalara toptan satış, kontrat işi ile piyasa oluşturmaya çalışıyorlar. Sonra müzik(Rythms), genişbant internet vs.

Enron’un temel sorunu aslında, batışının habercisi olan makalede de Bethany McLean’in “Enron çok mu yüksek fiyatlanıyor?” – Is Enron Overpriced? Makalesinde geçen bir soru “Enron gerçekte nasıl para yapıyor?” (How exactly does Enron make its Money?”

Bunun için de SPE – Special Purpose Entity’leri(SPV-Özel maksatlı şirket) anlamak gerekiyor. Bunlar özel bir iş için kurulan ayrı alt firmalar. Mesela bir şirket tüm işlemlerini aynı ana firma altında değil, ama ilerde satarım diye, mesela market zincirini ayrı bir alt firma, finans hizmetlerini ayrı bir firmada tutar. Böylelikle ana firmanın riskini sınırlamış olur.

Enron’cular bu kurdukları SPE şirketlere Star Wars, Jurassic Park’tan isimler veriyorlar. JEDI 1, JEDI 2, Raptor. Çocuklarının ve eşlerinin baş harflerinden LJM 1, LJM2. Bir diğer yaptıkları şey ise, muhasebe de mark-to-market, cari piyasa değerine göre değerlemeye geçiyorlar. Muhasebesel olarak işleri kuralına göre yapmayarak, bir şirketi aldıklarında o andaki değerlerden tüm kârını bugüne endeksleyip sanki kâr varmış gibi gösterip, zararları da SPE’lere yıkıyorlar. (Teknik detayların bir kısmı kitapta var, ABD’deki muhasebeleştirme kurallarını kötüye kullanıyorlar, sonra 2002 yılında Sarbanes-Oxley yasası çıkıyor)

Yani ana şirket aslında çok kar etmiş gözükürken, tüm zararlar SPE’lere itiliyor. Ve olaylar anlaşılmasın diye de en iyi muhasebecilerle çalışarak bilanço, gelir tablolarını mümkün olduğunca az bilgili ve anlaşılmaz yapıyorlar. Aslında sorunlar Enron’un kredi notu “junk” seviyeye düşmese daha da ileri itilebilir gibi bir his var kitapta. Ama zararlar ortaya çıkınca hisse değeri $1’ın altına düşüyor.

Kitapta Enron’u boru hattı ile gaz işinden, deregüle piyasada “inovasyon” oluşturan, risk araçları geliştiren, piyasalar kurmaya çalışan, bir çok ürün için piyasa oluşturan bir şirket olarak görülüyor. Ayrıca en zeki insanlarla çalışıyorlar. Burada kitapta verilen bir diğer mesaj da, en iyilerle çalışmak başarıyı garanti etmez. Bunun için de Long Term Capital Management hedge fonu örnek veriliyor. Nobel ekonomi ödüllü iktisatçıların inovatif fonunun bile (1994-1998), bir Rus krizi ile battığı anlatılıyor.

Kitapta 3 temel kişinin etrafında dönüyor. Ken Lay, Bush ailesinin de takdirini kazanan Enron’un kurucusu. İsmi EnterOn’dan geliyor ama kısaca Enron deniyor. ABD başkanı George W. Bush (oğul Bush) “Kenny Boy” diyor. 2006’da kalp krizinden ölüyor

Jeffrey Skilling, en çok kötü adam olarak hissetirilen kişi, hatta 6 ay da CEO’luk yapıyor. Aslında master planlar Skilling’den. Harvard mezunu olması ve Harvard’da bir derste durum değerlendirmesinde, “insanları öldürse de ürünleri satmaya devam edeceği” şeklindeki cevabı şoke edici. 2017’de hapisten çıkabilecek.

Andy Fastow, SPE’leri yöneten ve muhasebe işlemlerinden sorumlu kişi. Muhasebe ile ilgili teknik kısımları organize ediyor, 2011’de hapisten çıkıyor.

 

Tarih

24 Ocak 2002- Enron, ABD Başkanının Kayınvalidesini de batırmış, Milliyet

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  257. Your style is so unique in comparison to other folks I have read stuff from. Thank you for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I’ll just book mark this site.

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  276. When I initially commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks!

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  285. When I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I get four emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

  286. Hello there, I think your website may be having web browser compatibility issues. When I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Apart from that, wonderful site!

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  293. After I initially left a comment I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on whenever a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. There has to be an easy method you are able to remove me from that service? Cheers!

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  307. May I simply say what a relief to find somebody who genuinely understands what they’re discussing over the internet. You definitely realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people need to check this out and understand this side of the story. I was surprised that you aren’t more popular since you most certainly possess the gift.

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  333. After I originally left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I get four emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a means you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!

  334. After I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there a means you are able to remove me from that service? Thank you!

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  336. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who has been doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me lunch because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to discuss this matter here on your site.

  337. After I initially commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the same comment. Is there an easy method you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

  338. Your style is so unique in comparison to other folks I have read stuff from. Thanks for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I’ll just bookmark this site.

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